Holiday shopping 2026 is shaping up as a record season on paper, with the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasting $1.013 trillion in sales and Deloitte finding that the average household expects to spend $1,654. The catch is that shoppers are not loosening up: Deloitte says 38% are “holiday value seekers” using five or more money-saving tactics. This guide explains what the three big forecasts say, where they differ and how to build a plan before the deals start. It is general information, not financial advice.
Holiday shopping 2026 at a glance: three forecasts, three yardsticks
Three major forecasts for holiday shopping 2026 landed in the last few weeks. They point the same way (more spending than last year), but they measure different things, so the numbers should not be compared head to head.
| Source | What it measures | Headline number |
|---|---|---|
| NRF (Oct. 15) | Total retail sales, Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, excluding autos, gas stations and restaurants | $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% |
| Deloitte (Oct. 15) | Average expected spend per household, from a survey of 4,000 consumers | $1,654, up 4% |
| Adobe (Sept. 28) | US online holiday sales only | $275.1 billion, up 6.7% |
In short, NRF is the widest lens on store and online retail, Adobe counts only e-commerce, and Deloitte asks people what they plan to spend. Keep that in mind as you read the details below.
What NRF expects for holiday shopping 2026: $1 trillion, but prices do some work
For holiday shopping 2026, NRF forecasts holiday sales of $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% over 2025, according to coverage of its Oct. 15 release by Retail TouchPoints. Last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion, so this year’s forecast is a faster pace.
Not all of that growth is extra stuff in shopping carts. NRF says nearly half of the 4.2% is real spending, and the rest reflects higher prices. The group expects core goods inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, compared with 1.6% in 2025.
NRF chief economist Mark Mathews described “a consumer economy that remains remarkably resilient.” The forecast also includes seasonal hiring of 325,000 to 375,000 workers, versus an estimated 356,000 last year. If you are looking for extra income, see our guide to Amazon holiday jobs, pay and how to apply.
For the official forecast and updates, visit nrf.com.
What Deloitte found: a bigger budget, shifting priorities
Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey, a key read on holiday shopping 2026, polled 4,000 US consumers between Aug. 26 and Sept. 10, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The average expected spend is $1,654, up 4% from $1,595 a year ago.
The split inside that total matters. Spending on retail goods is expected to average $988, up 10%. Spending on holiday activities, such as travel and entertainment, is expected to average $666, down 4%.
Income and age gaps are wide
Deloitte reports that households earning $200,000 or more expect to spend an average of $3,607, while households under $50,000 expect to spend $693. For the first time in the survey, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for half of holiday spending. Deloitte’s Natalie Martini put it this way: “For the first time in our annual survey, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of holiday spending.”
Treating yourself is a bigger line item
Self-gifting is a growing part of holiday shopping 2026. Deloitte says shoppers expect to spend an average of $299 on gifts for themselves, up 13% from 2025 and up 20% from 2024. If you do not budget for it, those “one for me” purchases can quietly break a plan.
You can read the full survey at deloitte.com.
Holiday shopping 2026 online: what Adobe’s forecast says
Adobe’s Sept. 28 forecast for holiday shopping 2026 projects US online holiday sales of $275.1 billion, up 6.7%. Shoppers are also doing more of that on phones: mobile is expected to account for 57.4% of online spending in the season. Deloitte’s survey lines up with the shift to digital, finding that 55% of retail holiday budgets will go to online purchases.
Adobe also projected these peaks:
- Cyber Week: $47.5 billion, up 7.4%.
- Black Friday: $12.9 billion, up 9.2%.
- Cyber Monday (Nov. 30): $15.1 billion, up 6.2%.
- Prime Day (Oct. 6 to 7): $9.9 billion, up 9.2%.
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is forecast at $21.3 billion, up 6.6%. Adobe also expects traffic to retail sites from AI sources to rise 130%, a sign that more people may start product research in chatbots. On discounts, Adobe expects the deepest cuts in Cyber Week to reach up to 30%, with electronics at 30% and toys at 29%.
Early and value-driven: how shoppers are changing their habits
The Deloitte survey suggests that holiday shopping 2026 is starting earlier and getting more strategic. Among its findings:
- 38% of consumers are “holiday value seekers” who use five or more money-saving behaviors.
- 22% plan to start earlier than usual.
- One in four bought holiday items during June promotions.
- Four in 10 plan to shop October sales events, close to the 44% who plan to shop Cyber Monday.
- 28% expect their holiday budgets to be exhausted by the end of October, the highest share in six years.
That last number is a warning sign. Early deals are only a bargain if they fit the budget you set, and a quarter of shoppers running out of money before November suggests many are stretching.
Inflation is part of the backdrop. Our look at the September CPI report, where inflation hit 3.7%, explains why many households are watching prices closely.
Experiences are rising too
Experiences are gaining ground in holiday shopping 2026. Deloitte says 50% of shoppers plan to give an experience as a gift, up from 47% in 2025 and 39% in 2024. Restaurant meals or gift cards lead at 37%, followed by event tickets at 19%.
There is also a stress angle. Among people who find gifting stressful, 74% say wish lists help ease it, according to Deloitte. Asking family members for specific lists can cut both stress and returns.
A 6-step plan for holiday shopping 2026
Forecasts describe the crowd, but your holiday shopping 2026 plan is personal. What matters for you is your own list and your own limit. Here is a simple plan, based on general budgeting practice rather than any one source.
- Set a total cap first. Pick one number for gifts, food, travel and self-gifts. For context, Deloitte’s national average is $1,654, but that average hides a range from $693 to $3,607 by income group. Your cap should match your household, not the headline.
- Write the list and include yourself. Add a line for self-gifts. If the average shopper plans about $299 for that, planning it beats stumbling into it.
- Track prices before the sales. Note the regular price of big-ticket items now. A “30% off” label means little if the price was raised first.
- Use early deals only for items already on your list. October events and Cyber Week can help, but an unplanned purchase is not a saving.
- Be careful with buy now, pay later. Splitting a payment can make a purchase feel smaller than it is. Count every installment against your cap, and make sure you could pay it off if your income dipped.
- Add experiences and wish lists. Meals, tickets and shared wish lists can lower waste. Pick ones with a fixed price so they do not blow the budget.
This is general information. If your finances are tight, a certified financial counselor can help you build a plan that fits your situation.
Key dates for holiday shopping 2026
These calendar dates anchor holiday shopping 2026:
- Oct. 31: Halloween. Our guide to Halloween spending in 2026 shows how one holiday can eat into the next one’s budget.
- Nov. 1: NRF’s holiday sales window begins (it runs through Dec. 31).
- Nov. 26: Thanksgiving.
- Nov. 27: Black Friday.
- Nov. 30: Cyber Monday.
Retailer promotions, shipping cutoffs and return windows vary, so check each store’s policy before you buy.
What we do not know yet
Forecasts for holiday shopping 2026 are not results. They were made before the holiday season began, and conditions such as prices, jobs and consumer confidence can change. Deloitte’s figures come from a survey of what people say they plan to do, and stated plans do not always match what they actually buy.
The three reports also use different definitions, as shown above, so differences in growth rates (4.2%, 4% and 6.7%) reflect what is measured, not a disagreement about the season.
The takeaway: plan early, spend on purpose
The forecasts agree that holiday shopping 2026 will be big, and that shoppers are starting sooner and hunting for value. The best response is to be just as deliberate. Set your cap this week, write your list, and treat every deal as a test: is it on the list, and is it within the limit?
This article is for general information and is not investment, tax or financial advice.
