Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI models, reportedly lost $42 billion last year – and could still go public at a valuation above $2 trillion. That would make it the largest IPO in history, bigger than SpaceX’s blockbuster debut in June.
Those numbers come from a leaked Anthropic IPO prospectus that Reuters says it reviewed on Monday, Sept. 28. The official filing hasn’t been made public, and Anthropic declined to comment. So here’s a clear-eyed look at what’s reported versus confirmed, the bull and bear cases, and what it means if you’re wondering whether you can buy in.
Quick note: this article is for general information only and is not investment advice.
Anthropic IPO: What’s Confirmed vs. What’s Reported
This story is moving fast, and most of it rests on anonymous sources and documents that aren’t public yet. Here’s how the pieces sort out.
| Claim | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic is preparing an IPO | Widely reported; company declined to comment | Reuters, Financial Times, Bloomberg |
| Valuation of $2 trillion or more | Reported investor expectation, not a company target | FT via Quartz; Reuters |
| 2025 revenue ~$4.6B, net loss ~$42B | From a prospectus “seen by Reuters,” not yet public | Reuters |
| Listing date | Unconfirmed; reports have shifted from October to after the November midterms | Reuters, Motley Fool |
| Lead banks: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan | Reported | FT via Quartz |
The bottom line: until Anthropic publicly files its S-1 registration statement with the SEC, every number below should be read as “reported,” not official.
What the Leaked Anthropic IPO Prospectus Shows
According to Reuters’ exclusive report, the prospectus paints a picture of explosive growth and staggering costs at the same time:
- Revenue: up 12-fold in 2025 to nearly $4.6 billion.
- Net loss: about $42 billion in 2025.
- Operating loss: more than $8 billion (reported at $8.06 billion), up from about $2.98 billion in 2024.
- Compute spending: $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure, roughly triple 2024 and more than half of $12.65 billion in total operating expenses.
- Future commitments: $518 billion in cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations.
- Cash: $20.28 billion in cash, equivalents and short-term investments as of Dec. 31.
Why the $42 billion loss is less scary than it sounds
Context matters here. Reuters reported that roughly $34 billion of the net loss was a non-cash accounting charge. It reflected a jump in the estimated value of financing that could eventually convert into Anthropic shares – in plain English, the company’s soaring valuation made those instruments look more expensive on paper. It was not cash spent running the business.
The operating loss of about $8 billion is the better gauge of the day-to-day burn. That’s still a lot of money, and it’s growing.
When Is the Anthropic IPO? The Date Keeps Slipping
In August, the Financial Times reported that investors expected an October listing, according to Quartz. Since then, the timeline has moved.
The Motley Fool reported on Sept. 26 that Anthropic pushed its planned IPO from October to November. Reuters, in its Sept. 28 report, said the debut is likely to come after the November U.S. midterm elections, citing earlier sourcing.
Reports also suggest Anthropic may try to raise about $100 billion in the offering, according to the Motley Fool, which would top the record $75 billion SpaceX raised. We covered that record-setter in our SpaceX IPO explainer.
Bottom line: there’s no confirmed date. Treat any specific day you see online as a rumor until the company sets terms.
The Bull Case for the Anthropic IPO
Supporters point to growth that almost nothing else in the market can match.
- Revenue is accelerating in 2026. Bloomberg reported second-quarter revenue above $11.5 billion, up from $4.73 billion in the first quarter and just $787 million a year earlier, according to the Motley Fool.
- Run-rate targets are huge. Half a dozen backers told the FT they expect annualized revenue of $100 billion to $120 billion by year-end, versus $47 billion in May.
- Profit may be arriving. The FT reported Anthropic was set to post an adjusted operating profit for a second straight quarter, according to the Motley Fool – though “adjusted” figures are unaudited and can exclude a lot.
- The long-term story. Reuters reported the valuation case leans on projected 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, according to people familiar with the financials.
Using those projections, Motley Fool contributor Matt DiLallo estimated that a $2 trillion valuation works out to roughly 18 times expected year-end run-rate revenue – high, but far below the roughly 94 times sales he calculated for SpaceX at its IPO.
The Bear Case: Risks Investors Can’t Ignore
Skeptics have plenty to work with, and much of it comes from Anthropic’s own reported disclosures.
1. Heavy customer concentration
Nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue came from just two customers, Reuters reported, and many large clients aren’t locked into long-term contracts.
2. Enormous spending commitments
That $518 billion in infrastructure obligations dwarfs current revenue. If demand cools, those bills don’t disappear. For a reminder of how quickly AI infrastructure plans can hit turbulence, see our report on Oracle’s force majeure notice on its Stargate data center.
3. Price pressure and competition
Anthropic’s top model costs more than 2.5 times OpenAI’s flagship, while Chinese open-weight models are far cheaper, according to Artificial Analysis data cited by the FT. Ramp payments data suggested some businesses are shifting toward lower-cost AI options. And rivals are circling: OpenAI confidentially filed for its own IPO in June, and Microsoft is repositioning its Copilot business, as we covered in Microsoft’s Copilot app merger.
4. Regulatory and legal risk
Anthropic has clashed with the White House, and the Pentagon’s move to temporarily blacklist the company was blocked by a judge in August, Reuters reported. Revenue growth also slowed in June after a temporary Commerce Department export control on its top models, investors told the FT.
5. The “existential risk” section
Reuters reported the prospectus devotes about 80 of 261 pages to risk factors, including warnings that AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.” That’s unusual candor for an IPO document, and it cuts both ways: some investors may see it as responsible disclosure, others as a flashing yellow light.
6. Missing 2026 numbers
Motley Fool analyst Bram Berkowitz flagged that the Reuters report included no 2026 financials. “I don’t see how Anthropic can justify a $2 trillion valuation without including some information about its 2026 financials,” he wrote.
How Wall Street Reacted to the Anthropic IPO News
The market’s response was muted. Stock futures wavered Tuesday morning as the leaked details and a separate OpenAI model delay revived AI safety worries, Yahoo Finance reported.
By the close on Sept. 29, the Nasdaq slipped 0.09% and the S&P 500 fell about 0.2%. Investors were juggling a lot at once: a 12-year low in consumer confidence, Treasury yields near two-decade highs and a White House meeting with AI executives, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.
The broader backdrop matters too. Oura delayed its own IPO the same day, citing market uncertainty, and Renaissance Capital data showed U.S. IPO counts down about 30% from last year, TheStreet reported.
Can You Buy Anthropic Stock Before the IPO?
Short answer: not directly, not yet.
What is an IPO?
An initial public offering is when a private company first sells shares to the public. Under U.S. law, it must register the offering with the SEC, usually on Form S-1, which includes a prospectus with audited financials and risk factors. The SEC’s own investor bulletin on IPOs calls investing in them “risky and speculative.”
Your realistic options
- Wait for the listing. Once shares trade on an exchange, anyone with a brokerage account can buy. IPO allocations at the offering price usually go to big institutions, so most individuals buy after trading starts – often at a higher, more volatile price.
- Indirect exposure. Amazon and Google are major investors in Anthropic, Reuters noted, but Anthropic is a small slice of those giant companies. A few ETFs hold tiny positions; the Motley Fool reported the KraneShares AGIX fund had about 1.19% of assets in Anthropic as of Sept. 3.
- Beware “pre-IPO” offers. Private secondary markets are mostly limited to accredited investors, and the SEC warns that unregistered pre-IPO share pitches are sometimes scams.
The Bottom Line: What to Do Now
The Anthropic IPO could be a defining moment for the AI trade – or a test of how much investors will pay for growth that hasn’t turned consistently profitable. Right now, you’re working with leaked documents and anonymous sources.
Your smartest moves:
- Wait for the public S-1. Read the audited numbers, especially 2026 results, before forming a view.
- Set a budget in advance. If you want exposure, decide how much you’re comfortable risking before the first-day hype hits.
- Check your existing exposure. If you own big tech or AI funds, you may already have indirect ties to Anthropic and its rivals.
- Ignore anyone selling “early access.” Legitimate IPO shares come through registered brokers, not cold calls or social media DMs.
Stay tuned to USA One News as the filing goes public and the IPO date firms up.
