Anne Hathaway just beat Tom Cruise, and it wasn’t close. Colleen Hoover’s Verity pulled in an estimated $14.5 million on Friday alone, while Cruise’s $125-million-plus satire Digger is now pacing for about $10 million for the entire weekend – his weakest opening in 19 years.
Those are early estimates from Friday night, and Sunday’s studio numbers can still move. But the Verity box office story is already clear: a modestly budgeted book adaptation is on track to win the weekend, and one of Hollywood’s biggest stars is staring at a rare miss. Here’s what the numbers say, why it happened and what to watch next.
Verity Box Office: The Friday Numbers
According to Deadline’s Friday-night box office report, Verity grossed about $14.5 million on opening day. That figure includes $4.5 million from Thursday preview screenings, which started at 2 p.m.
Based on that start, Deadline is projecting a weekend of roughly $32 million from 3,510 theaters in the U.S. and Canada. That would put the R-rated psychological thriller comfortably at No. 1.
It also lands at the top of the pre-release range. Variety had forecast $30 million to $35 million, while Amazon MGM itself was projecting $27 million to $30 million, according to a roundup of tracking by Comic Basics. Some earlier tracking had been as low as $19 million to $25 million.
Quick refresher if you haven’t been following: Verity is directed by Michael Showalter. Dakota Johnson plays a struggling writer hired to finish the books of a famous author (Hathaway) after an accident, and Josh Hartnett plays the author’s husband. Our Verity movie guide has the full cast and setup – spoiler-free.
A $40 million bet that already looks smart
Verity cost a reported $40 million to make before marketing, per Variety. A $32 million opening weekend would recover a big chunk of that in three days, before a single overseas ticket is counted.
Deadline had also projected $20 million to $25 million from about 70 international markets ahead of the weekend, which would put a global start in the $50 million range if it holds.
Digger Box Office: Tom Cruise’s Lowest Opening Since 2007
Now for the other side of the weekend. Warner Bros.’ Digger, directed by Oscar winner Alejandro G. Inarritu, earned $1.2 million from Thursday previews at about 3,000 locations. It expanded to 3,321 theaters on Friday and was pacing for around $4 million on opening day, previews included.
That points to an opening weekend of about $10 million, according to Deadline. If that holds, it would be the lowest debut for a Tom Cruise movie since Lions for Lambs in 2007, which opened to roughly $6.7 million.
Where it lands in the top five matters too. Deadline’s Friday estimates, as summarized by Forbes, had Digger at No. 4 – behind two holdovers.
The budget problem
This is where the math gets painful. Digger was greenlit at $125 million. Variety reported that, according to four knowledgeable sources, the budget climbed to $160 million to $180 million after the shoot went over schedule. Warner Bros. reportedly spent another $100 million on marketing.
Tracking slid all month. Box Office Pro’s long-range forecast on Sept. 11 had the film at $20 million to $30 million. Warner Bros.’ own forecast was $12 million to $15 million by opening week, and Box Office Theory went lower, to $7.5 million to $12.5 million. Friday’s numbers are landing closest to that low end.
Why Verity Worked: The Colleen Hoover Effect
The simplest explanation for the Verity box office win is the author’s name on the poster. Hollywood has been in the Colleen Hoover business since 2024’s It Ends With Us opened to about $50 million and went on to earn $351 million worldwide.
Verity is the fourth Hoover adaptation to reach theaters. Hoover’s novels built a huge fan base through BookTok and book clubs, and that audience tends to show up together, often on opening weekend.
Several signs pointed to that crowd turning out:
- Walk-up business: Box office trackers reported strong walk-up sales heading into Friday, the kind of last-minute buying that suggests friend groups making plans.
- Critic-proof history: Comic Basics noted that Reminders of Him drew mixed reviews but still grossed $89 million against a $25 million budget.
- A star on a streak: If it holds at No. 1, Verity would be Hathaway’s third No. 1 opening of 2026, following The Devil Wears Prada 2 and The Odyssey, per the same outlet.
That fan power matters because reviews were not kind. After the embargo lifted, Verity sat at 43% on Rotten Tomatoes from 65 reviews, with a 43 on Metacritic. The common complaint, per Comic Basics’ review roundup, is that the movie plays it too safe for such a twisty, pulpy story. Fans clearly did not care.
Why Digger Struggled
On paper, Cruise plus a two-time Best Director winner sounds like an event. In practice, Digger asked a lot of a mainstream audience.
1. A tough sell of a concept
The R-rated film is an original dark-comedy satire. Cruise, buried under prosthetics, plays Digger Rockwell, a powerful oil tycoon trying to prove he can save the world from an ecological disaster he caused. There are no Mission: Impossible-style stunts to sell in a trailer, and original, adult-skewing comedies are among the hardest films to open right now.
2. Reviews split down the middle
Critics were divided. As of Sept. 29, Digger held a 53% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes from 99 reviews, according to CinemaBlend – the first “rotten” score for a Cruise movie since 2017’s The Mummy. The Hollywood Reporter’s David Rooney put himself “in the camp of those who most definitely did not dig it,” while the BBC’s Nicholas Barber called it “a love-it-or-hate-it folly” and said he loved it. For more, see our Digger movie reviews roundup.
3. Turmoil at the studio
The timing could hardly be worse for Warner Bros. The Hollywood Reporter reported that film chiefs Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy are out at the studio, with the exits coming ahead of Paramount Skydance’s merger with Warner Bros., which THR said is likely to be finalized around Oct. 6. Digger was a signature example of their strategy of backing big, filmmaker-driven projects after the success of Sinners and One Battle After Another in 2025.
To be clear, a single movie didn’t cause those exits, and the merger was already in motion. But Digger opening the same weekend made for brutal headlines.
The Rest of the Weekend Top 5
Here’s how Deadline’s Friday estimates shake out for the full weekend, as reported by Forbes. All numbers are estimates and will change.
| Rank | Movie | Est. weekend | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Verity (Amazon MGM) | ~$32M | Opening; 3,510 theaters |
| 2 | Resident Evil | ~$11.5M | Third weekend; ~$123.8M domestic total |
| 3 | The Heart of the Beast | ~$10.3M | Second weekend; ~$37.7M total |
| 4 | Digger (Warner Bros.) | ~$10M | Opening; 3,321 theaters |
| 5 | Primetime | ~$7.6M | Second weekend; ~$32.7M total |
Zach Cregger’s Resident Evil keeps rolling after a franchise-best start, and Brad Pitt’s survival thriller The Heart of the Beast is holding well. Notice that Digger and The Heart of the Beast are separated by a few hundred thousand dollars, so their order could flip by Sunday.
It has been a strange fall at the movies, where even a re-release can win a weekend. If you missed it, here’s how the Avengers: Endgame encore pulled off its big box office weekend.
What the Verity Box Office Win Means for Hollywood
This weekend is a neat summary of where moviegoing is in 2026.
- Built-in fan bases beat star power. A best-selling book with a passionate readership opened bigger than a Tom Cruise film. Studios will take note and keep buying Hoover-style properties.
- Budgets have to match the audience. Verity at $40 million and Digger at $125 million or more had very different hurdles to clear. Industry executives cited by Variety estimated Digger may need roughly $350 million worldwide to break even in theaters.
- Women-driven thrillers are reliable. Hoover adaptations keep drawing a crowd that Hollywood has often underserved.
For Amazon MGM, the stakes were real. The studio was looking to rebound after the summer flop of Masters of the Universe. A clear No. 1 helps.
What’s Next and How to Watch
Final weekend estimates arrive Sunday, and official numbers come Monday. The key thing to watch for Verity is the second-weekend drop. Fan-driven openings can be front-loaded, so a hold of 50% or better would be a strong sign of word of mouth beyond the book club crowd.
For Digger, the question is whether audiences who like bold, divisive films find it over the next few weeks, and how it performs overseas, where Cruise has long been a major draw.
Your move: If you’re a Hoover fan planning a group outing, weekday matinees are usually the cheapest seats and the least crowded. Curious about Digger? Read the reviews first – this is one where knowing what you’re in for really helps. Either way, check back Monday, when we’ll update you on the final Verity box office numbers and how the rest of the top five settled.
