The Nasdaq just finished the week higher as Nvidia closed at a record, while the S&P 500 and Dow slipped. Now the stock market week ahead shifts the spotlight from jobs to the Federal Reserve itself: minutes from the Fed’s September rate-hike meeting land Wednesday, with a services-sector check-up, PepsiCo and Delta earnings, and Amazon’s October Prime Day all packed into the same five days.
After Friday’s weak jobs report, traders scaled back bets on an October rate hike. This week will test whether that relief holds. Here are the five things most likely to move your money between Monday, Oct. 5, and Friday, Oct. 9.
Quick note: this article is for general information only and is not investment advice.
Stock Market Week Ahead: Where Stocks Stand Now
Friday was a strong day. The S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 250.40 points (0.49%) to 51,176.96, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.19% to 27,190.86 after touching a record intraday high, according to Yahoo Finance.
The full week was more mixed. Compared with the Sept. 25 closes, the S&P 500 dipped about 0.3%, the Dow fell about 1.3%, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.5%. Yahoo Finance confirmed only the Nasdaq ended the week in the green.
A few other numbers set the scene:
- Nvidia: closed at an all-time high Friday for the first time since May, with a market value around $5.7 trillion, Quartz reported.
- 10-year Treasury yield: dipped to 5.18% after the jobs report, then finished near 5.28%. It topped 5.3% in September, its highest since 2002.
- Oil: Brent crude traded around $100 to $102 a barrel Friday, while U.S. crude (WTI) settled near $91.
- Fed odds: CME FedWatch odds of an October hike fell to roughly 16% to 22% on Friday, down from about 64% a week earlier.
For the bigger picture on how the quarter ended, see our Q3 stock market recap and what history says about Q4.
The Stock Market Week Ahead at a Glance
| Day | Key events (times ET, typical release times) |
|---|---|
| Mon, Oct. 5 | S&P Global services PMI; ISM services PMI (10 a.m.) |
| Tue, Oct. 6 | Prime Big Deal Days begins; trade balance (8:30 a.m.); Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston, RPM earnings; Fed’s Williams and Bowman speak |
| Wed, Oct. 7 | Prime Big Deal Days ends; FOMC minutes (2 p.m.); consumer credit; Applied Digital, Levi Strauss earnings; Fed’s Logan and Williams speak |
| Thu, Oct. 8 | Jobless claims (8:30 a.m.); wholesale inventories; PepsiCo and Tilray earnings; Fed’s Musalem speaks |
| Fri, Oct. 9 | University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary October (10 a.m.); Delta Air Lines earnings; Fed’s Collins speaks |
Not on the list: the September CPI inflation report. That’s scheduled for Oct. 14, the following week.
1. Wednesday’s Fed Minutes Are the Main Event
The biggest scheduled event in the stock market week ahead is Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 meeting. That’s the meeting where the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since 2023.
Why do month-old notes matter? Because they show how the debate actually went behind closed doors. According to FXStreet, the vote was 12-0, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the committee wasn’t confident underlying inflation was heading to 2% fast enough.
The Fed’s own projections hint at a split on what comes next. XM analyst Raffi Boyadjian, writing on FXStreet, noted that most officials see at least one more quarter-point hike by December, but only eight members projected another hike in 2027. The minutes could show whether the rest of the committee is drifting toward the more hawkish camp.
Why it matters to you: a hawkish tone could push bond yields back up, which tends to lift mortgage and auto loan rates and pressure tech stocks. A calmer tone could support Friday’s relief rally.
Fed speakers all week
The minutes won’t be the only Fed headline. FXStreet’s calendar lists New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Williams again on Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem on Thursday and Boston Fed President Susan Collins on Friday. Williams already said last week there was no urgency to raise rates again, which helped cool October hike bets.
2. Monday’s ISM Services Report Sets the Tone
The week kicks off Monday with the ISM services PMI for September. Services make up the bulk of the U.S. economy, so this survey is a broad health check.
CMC Markets’ Michael Kramer said the index is expected to rise to 55.7 from 55.4. Any reading above 50 signals growth.
The number to watch is buried inside: the prices paid component. Last week’s manufacturing survey showed prices paid at 77.9, far above the 72.3 that was expected, according to CMC Markets. If service businesses report the same kind of cost pressure, it would revive worries about inflation and could undo some of Friday’s drop in rate-hike odds.
3. Earnings: PepsiCo and Delta Kick Off the Season Early
Third-quarter earnings season doesn’t hit full speed until the following week, but a few big names report early:
- Constellation Brands (Tuesday): The Corona and Modelo brewer gives a read on beer demand and how consumers are spending on everyday treats.
- Applied Digital and Levi Strauss (Wednesday): One is an AI data center developer, the other a jeans maker. Together they offer a snapshot of the AI build-out and mall shopping.
- PepsiCo (Thursday): PepsiCo will post results around 6 a.m. EDT on Oct. 8, with an analyst Q&A at 8:15 a.m., according to a company announcement. Analysts expect earnings of about $2.30 a share, roughly flat from a year ago, on revenue up 4.3% to around $25 billion, CMC Markets said.
- Delta Air Lines (Friday): The airline is scheduled to discuss September-quarter results Oct. 9. With jet fuel costs elevated, investors will focus on its outlook for the holiday travel season.
Why PepsiCo matters beyond soda and chips: CMC noted the stock recently broke below support around $128 and looks oversold. Its report is an early read on whether shoppers are still paying up for brand names as grocery bills stay high.
4. Prime Big Deal Days Tests the Shopper
Amazon’s October Prime Day event, officially Prime Big Deal Days, runs Tuesday and Wednesday, Oct. 6-7. It’s the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.
There’s no official sales number during the week, but retail stocks and the broader consumer mood will be in focus. Consumers are stretched: inflation has been running ahead of pay since spring, and consumer confidence recently hit a 12-year low. Friday’s University of Michigan survey will add a fresh read on sentiment and, importantly, on what shoppers expect inflation to do.
If you plan to shop, our guide to October Prime Day 2026 dates, times and 9 rules to actually save has the details.
5. Bonds, Oil and the Hormuz Wildcard
The economic calendar is light, but the bond market isn’t. XM’s Boyadjian warned that government bond yields “continue to soar on growing worries that the energy crisis will only get worse.” The U.S., U.K. and Japan are all scheduled to auction long-term debt this week, he noted, which could test demand for bonds.
Oil is the other wildcard. On Friday, G7 nations announced a plan to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel over four months to ease fuel prices, Yahoo Finance reported. U.S. diesel averaged $6.37 a gallon on Friday. Any headline on U.S.-Iran talks or the Strait of Hormuz could swing oil, yields and stocks together.
What to watch: if the 10-year yield climbs back toward its September highs above 5.3%, rate-sensitive stocks and mortgage rates would likely feel it first.
What the Stock Market Week Ahead Means for the Fed’s Next Move
The Fed’s next decision is Oct. 27-28. After Friday’s soft jobs report, markets now lean toward a hold in October but still expect a hike by December. Fox Business cited a 66.2% CME FedWatch probability of a quarter-point hike at the December meeting.
This week can nudge those odds either way. Hawkish minutes, hot ISM prices data or rising inflation expectations in the Michigan survey could bring October back into play. Quiet readings would let markets focus on the next big test: CPI on Oct. 14. Last week’s stock market week ahead walked through how PCE and jobs data set up this moment.
Your Game Plan for the Week
- Circle Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. The Fed minutes are the likeliest market mover. Don’t make snap decisions on the first headline.
- Shop with a list, not a feeling. Prime Big Deal Days discounts are real for some items. Compare prices before buying.
- Watch your rate if you’re borrowing. If you’re close to buying a home, talk to your lender about a rate lock. Yields can move fast on Fed news.
- Keep cash working. High-yield savings, CDs and Treasury bills still pay well with a December hike on the table.
- Check your mix. With the Nasdaq leading and the Dow lagging, a tech-heavy portfolio may have drifted. Rebalance if it’s off your plan.
The bottom line: the stock market week ahead is light on data but heavy on Fed signals. Bookmark USA One News for daily updates as each event hits.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
