A creepy kid, a closet and a mother who is not quite her mother: Other Mommy box office forecasts put Universal’s new Jessica Chastain horror film anywhere from about $15 million to nearly $30 million for its opening weekend. That range would make it the likeliest winner of the October 9-11 frame, and it lands next to a very different movie fighting for attention, Aaron Sorkin’s Facebook drama The Social Reckoning.
Two wide releases, two opposite bets. One is a Blumhouse-backed scare machine. The other is a prestige “sequel” nobody asked for. Here is what we know going into Friday, and why the numbers could swing.
Other Mommy Box Office: What the Forecasts Say
Analysts do not agree on a single number, which is normal for a horror film with no big franchise behind it. The spread tells you how much is riding on word of mouth.
- Boxoffice Pro: a long-range tracking range of $15 million to $25 million, with a later weekend preview narrowing it to roughly $17 million to $22 million.
- Todd Thatcher’s weekend predictions: $29.2 million, citing an effective trailer and October’s appetite for scary movies.
- Variety’s headline: a “$20 million-plus debut.”
Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast compared it with recent mid-budget scares: Ouija: Origin of Evil ($14 million in October 2016) sits just below its range, while Smile 2 ($23 million in October 2024) and Black Phone 2 ($27.3 million) sit inside or near it. Note that tracking in that piece was dated mid-September, so later projections are the better guide.
What Is Other Mommy About?
The film is based on Incidents Around the House, a novel by Josh Malerman. According to the NBCUniversal announcement, a young girl named Bela forms a bond with a menacing presence in her home that looks uncannily like her own mother. The tagline is blunt: “Your mommy won’t save you.”
Dread Central reports that Bela is eight, that her family is strained by marital problems, and that the entity first appears in her closet before turning into a real threat. The film is rated R for “some bloody violence and language,” per the same report.
Who Is Behind It
Rob Savage directs. He is best known for Host, the pandemic-era Zoom horror movie. Nathan Elston wrote the screenplay, and James Wan is a producer. The film is a Universal release in partnership with Blumhouse.
Jessica Chastain plays both Bela’s mother and the “Other Mommy” entity. Jay Duplass plays Bela’s father, with Arabella Olivia Clark as Bela. Dichen Lachman, Arian Moayed and Karen Allen are in supporting roles.
Why the Other Mommy Box Office Is a Real Test for October
This is Chastain’s first big horror outing since IT: Chapter Two in 2019, as TechRadar noted when the trailer dropped. Writer Lucy Buglass argued that recent results show audiences want original horror stories rather than reboots.
That argument has some support at the 2026 box office. We have already covered how a $10 million movie became a monster hit in our look at Backrooms and its $396 million run, and how Resident Evil set a franchise opening record. Horror has been the most reliable genre of the fall so far.
There is also the matter of timing. October is the traditional home of scary movies, and audiences tend to turn out for them in the weeks before Halloween. Our own reporting shows Halloween spending forecast at a record $13.5 billion, a sign that people are in the mood to spend on spooky season fun, tickets included.
Another factor is the premise. A child, a closet and a parent who is somehow wrong is easy to explain in one sentence, and that is exactly what makes a trailer travel. Studios call this a “clean hook,” and it helps explain why analysts are comfortable guessing north of $20 million for a film without a built-in franchise.
Still, a forecast is not a result. A film built on a single star and a single concept lives or dies on its Friday-night audience score and on whether the second weekend holds.
The Social Reckoning: Sorkin’s Big Swing
Sony’s The Social Reckoning is the counter-programming. Sorkin directs, and it follows Frances Haugen (played by Mikey Madison) and Wall Street Journal reporter Jeff Horwitz (Jeremy Allen White). A Kalshi write-up says the story centers on the whistleblower and the reporting about how Facebook’s algorithms can expose vulnerable users to harmful content. Jeremy Strong plays Mark Zuckerberg, replacing Jesse Eisenberg from the 2010 film.
The money outlook is modest. Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast was $6 million to $10 million, and Thatcher predicts about $7.6 million, roughly a third of what The Social Network made. Critic Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel reported a budget of around $50 million, which would make the opening a tough start. Treat that budget figure as a single-source report.
What Early Reactions Say
The buzz is mixed. Ruimy described the early consensus as “rather mid,” and said comparisons to David Fincher’s original appear in almost every reaction. Kalshi’s write-up says some reviewers praised Sorkin’s dialogue and subject while others criticized the direction. Alexandre Desplat scores the film, replacing Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.
Why does the original matter so much here? The Social Network arrived in 2010 as a story about Facebook’s founding, and it became a cultural touchstone. A follow-up is therefore judged against a very high bar. Thatcher’s estimate, about a third of the original’s earnings, shows how hard it is for a talky drama to match that kind of pull at the modern box office.
The subject is also timely. Haugen’s story is about internal research and the public debate over social platforms, a topic many adults already follow. That could help the film find an older audience that skips horror, even if opening weekend is soft.
The review embargo was due to lift this week. We could not confirm a final Rotten Tomatoes score at the time of writing, so check the reviews yourself before buying tickets.
Where Verity and the Holdovers Fit In
Last weekend belonged to Amazon MGM’s Verity, which opened to about $32 million, according to Thatcher’s recap. Tom Cruise’s Digger opened to $8 million, as we reported in our Digger box office breakdown. For more on the winner, see our Verity weekend report.
Thatcher’s predicted top five for October 9-11 looks like this:
| Rank | Film | Predicted gross |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Other Mommy (new) | $29.2 million |
| 2 | Verity (week 2) | $13.1 million |
| 3 | Resident Evil (week 4) | $7.8 million |
| 4 | The Social Reckoning (new) | $7.6 million |
| 5 | Heart of the Beast (week 3) | $6.6 million |
These are one analyst’s estimates, not official figures. The same piece expects a steep second-weekend drop for Verity, citing a C+ CinemaScore. Actual studio estimates arrive Sunday.
What to Watch for in the Other Mommy Box Office Numbers
Three numbers will tell you the story before Monday:
- Thursday previews for Other Mommy. Strong previews usually point to the top of its range.
- Audience score. Horror lives on word of mouth. A good CinemaScore protects the second weekend.
- The gap between Verity and The Social Reckoning. If the Sorkin film beats expectations, adult audiences are still showing up for non-franchise drama.
Quick Answers: Other Mommy and The Social Reckoning
When does Other Mommy come out?
Other Mommy opens in theaters on Friday, October 9, 2026. It is a theatrical release, and no streaming date has been announced in the sources we reviewed.
Is Other Mommy rated R?
Yes. The MPA rated it R for “some bloody violence and language,” according to Dread Central. Despite the child lead, it is aimed at adults and teens, so parents should check the rating before bringing younger kids.
Who is in The Social Reckoning?
Mikey Madison plays Frances Haugen, Jeremy Allen White plays Jeff Horwitz and Jeremy Strong plays Mark Zuckerberg. Aaron Sorkin directs, and the film also opens October 9.
Which movie should you see first?
It depends on your mood. Horror fans will want the big-screen crowd experience of Other Mommy, while Sorkin fans may prefer to wait for reviews. Early reactions to The Social Reckoning were mixed, per World of Reel and Kalshi’s summary.
Bottom Line: Pick Your Fright or Your Facts
If you want a communal, lights-off scare, Other Mommy is the movie everyone will be talking about. If you want dialogue-heavy drama about tech and truth, The Social Reckoning is the grown-up option, though early buzz suggests lowering expectations. Remember that box office predictions often miss by tens of percent in either direction.
Planning more movie nights this season? Our fall 2026 movie guide covers what is coming next. Stay tuned to USA One News for Sunday’s actual box office numbers.
