The weekend box office forecast for Oct. 23-25 has a rare problem: the experts cannot agree on how big the new movie will be. Estimates for DC Studios’ Clayface run from $15 million to $30 million, and a documentary-style A24 hit could crowd it for first place. Here is the full scoreboard, what counts as a win, and what to watch before Sunday.
Weekend box office forecast: the scoreboard at a glance
Three outlets have published numbers for this weekend box office race. They do not match, and they should be read as ranges, not promises. Forecasts are subject to revision as Thursday previews and Friday results come in.
| Film (studio) | BoxOffice Pro | Box Office Theory | World of Reel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayface (Warner Bros./DC Studios), new | $25M-$30M | $15M-$23M | $18M-$20M (before reviews) |
| You Can See Everything (A24), week 2 | $15M-$20M | Not listed in our source | Could challenge Clayface for No. 1 |
| Street Fighter (Paramount), week 2 | $8M-$13M | Not listed in our source | Not listed in our source |
| Wildwood (Fathom), new | Not listed | $4.5M-$9.5M | Not listed |
| Wicker (Black Bear), new | Not listed | $4.5M-$8.5M | Not listed |
| Klara and the Sun (Sony) | Not listed | $1.5M-$3.5M | Not listed |
The gap between the lowest and highest Clayface number is $15 million. That is unusually wide for a wide release, and it is the main story of this weekend box office preview.
The forecasts come mainly from BoxOffice Pro, whose full weekend box office preview is worth a read. Remember that “forecast” does not mean “result.” Studios, analysts and outlets all update their numbers as real ticket data arrives.
Another reason the numbers diverge is timing. Some projections were made before reviews, and others after. A forecast built on presales alone can look very different from one that also weighs critics and early-week momentum.
Clayface: why the forecast swings from $15M to $30M
Clayface is an R-rated body horror film from DC Studios and Warner Bros. It opens Friday, Oct. 23, with Thursday previews. Reviews landed Oct. 21, and as we reported, critics are split in the low-to-mid 70s on Rotten Tomatoes.
BoxOffice Pro projects $25 million to $30 million, the high end of the field. Box Office Theory is more cautious at $15 million to $23 million. It expects Clayface to play like an original horror film more than a front-loaded comic-book property. It also notes that presales lagged Supergirl and Joker: Folie a Deux, per its forecast.
World of Reel put tracking at $18 million to $20 million before reviews arrived. For the full tracking picture, see our earlier look at Clayface box office tracking and presales.
What would count as a win
BoxOffice Pro’s analyst framed the stakes this way: “a minor hit would show the brand’s versatility.” The outlet said a solid result could also set up the planned Brave and the Bold Batman film.
A practical read, which is our own framing and not a studio target: landing near the middle of the range, around $20 million to $25 million, would look like a respectable start for an R-rated, mid-budget horror entry. Falling toward $15 million would match the cautious end of the forecasts. Topping $30 million would beat every number we have seen.
You Can See Everything: the second-weekend wildcard
A24’s You Can See Everything opened on 855 screens with $15.6 million. This Friday it expands to more than 2,500 screens, according to BoxOffice Pro. That is roughly a threefold jump in theaters, which is why this weekend box office race is closer than it looks.
BoxOffice Pro forecasts $15 million to $20 million. Its analyst said “Monday and Tuesday sales for the title have been great,” with early-week grosses above $2.5 million each day. If that holds, the film could push past $20 million. World of Reel likewise says it could challenge Clayface for the No. 1 spot.
We covered the debut in our post on the You Can See Everything box office opening, where it landed as a surprise No. 2.
What would count as a win
Holding or growing on a much bigger screen count is the goal. Any total in the forecast range would be a strong second weekend for a film that opened on fewer than 900 screens. A number above $20 million would put it in a real fight for first place.
One caution: expansions do not always scale in a straight line. A film that opens on fewer screens in the biggest markets can see its per-theater average fall when it reaches smaller towns. The strong early-week sales are a good sign, but Friday’s total is what matters for the weekend box office ranking.
Street Fighter: how steep will the week-2 drop be?
Paramount’s Street Fighter opened on 3,575 screens. Our Oct. 19 coverage recorded a $31 million debut that won the weekend. You can read it in our Street Fighter opening weekend report.
BoxOffice Pro projects $8 million to $13 million this time. Its analyst expects a steep week-2 drop and cited two comparisons: Mortal Kombat II (down 65%) and Masters of the Universe (down 69%). Applying those drops to a $31 million opening would imply roughly $9.6 million to $10.9 million, which sits inside the forecast range. That math is our own illustration, not a published projection.
What would count as a win
A drop smaller than the 65% to 69% comparison films would be a good sign for word of mouth. A drop at or beyond that level would match what the analyst expects for video game adaptations.
The rest of the weekend box office field
Box Office Theory also projects three smaller releases. Wildwood from Fathom is forecast at $4.5 million to $9.5 million. Wicker from Black Bear is at $4.5 million to $8.5 million. Klara and the Sun from Sony is at $1.5 million to $3.5 million.
We do not have ratings or detailed plot information for these titles in our sources, so check the theater listing before buying tickets. Details on how Box Office Theory built its numbers are on its weekend forecast page.
A broader point for movie fans: three films with very different audiences are opening or expanding at once. A horror release, a documentary-style crowd-pleaser and a video game sequel are all pulling from overlapping date-night audiences. That makes the weekend box office harder to call than a single big release facing weak competition.
What to watch from Thursday to Sunday
Forecasts are educated guesses. These are the signals that will show which ones are right.
- Thursday previews: Clayface’s preview number is the first real data point. Compare it with the earlier projections.
- Friday totals: The Friday figure for You Can See Everything on 2,500 screens will show whether its early-week strength carries over.
- CinemaScore: Audience grades for new releases are not out yet. They often shape how a film holds in its second weekend.
- Sunday estimates: Studios publish estimates on Sunday, and final actuals follow on Monday, so early numbers can shift.
Date night or family night: a quick guide by rating
Clayface is rated R. It is a body horror film that critics describe as gory, so it is not a family option. Our sources do not list ratings for the other films this weekend, so we will not guess. Check the official rating and content notes for each title before you go.
If you want to see Clayface for the horror, an evening show with a group of adults is the safer choice. If you are choosing something for a mixed group, look up ratings first at the theater site.
Bottom line
This weekend box office has three real contenders for the top spot and one very wide forecast. Clayface has the highest ceiling at $30 million, but a $15 million low case is also on the table. You Can See Everything has momentum and a big screen expansion. Street Fighter is likely to fall hard in week 2.
Your takeaway: if you want an opinion before you spend money, check Thursday’s preview numbers and Friday’s audience reaction first, then compare them with the ranges in the table above, then pick your showtime. This article is entertainment news, not investment advice.
