The stock market week ahead has a rare double feature: the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28 at 2 p.m. ET, and Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings after the closing bell the very same day. Amazon follows on Thursday, Oct. 29. With the Nasdaq under pressure from doubts about AI spending, these five sessions could set the tone into the Nov. 3 midterm elections. This is general information, not investment advice.
Stock Market Week Ahead: The Calendar at a Glance
Here are the dates that matter most for Oct. 26-30, based on the Nasdaq earnings calendar and market-preview reporting from Oct. 23. Dates can change, so confirm with each company.
| Day | Key event | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct. 26 | Verizon earnings; Cadence Design and Welltower after the close | Verizon before the open |
| Tue, Oct. 27 | Coca-Cola, UPS, Boeing; Visa after the close; first day of the Fed meeting | Mixed |
| Wed, Oct. 28 | ADP jobs report; Fed decision; Microsoft and Alphabet earnings | ADP before the open; Fed at 2 p.m. ET; earnings after the close |
| Thu, Oct. 29 | Amazon, Intel and Starbucks after the close; September PCE inflation data | Eli Lilly, Merck, Mastercard, Caterpillar before the open |
| Fri, Oct. 30 | ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Regeneron | All before the open |
Nasdaq data show the load is heaviest midweek: 152 companies report on Wednesday with a combined market value of about $12.0 trillion, and 202 report on Thursday with about $11.3 trillion. Roughly one-third of the S&P 500 reports this week.
1. The Fed Decision: A Hold Is Expected, a December Hike Is the Question
What is happening
Fed funds futures put the odds of the Fed holding rates at roughly 90% to 92% on Oct. 28, according to market commentary published Oct. 23. The same pricing implied about an 85% chance of a rate hike in December. Reuters, via AP reporting, said investors will watch for hints about a possible December hike.
Why it matters
Inflation is running hot. September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, and gasoline prices remain a pressure point. Our September CPI breakdown shows how energy costs fed through. Higher rates raise borrowing costs for mortgages, cards and business loans. Mortgage rates have already climbed above 7%; see our guide to mortgage rates and 7 moves to make.
What to watch
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has so far avoided clear forward guidance. In mid-October he cited rising energy prices, persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs as sources of uncertainty, while calling AI a likely major growth driver. The statement wording and the press conference are where traders will hunt for clues. For the backstory, read our explainer on the Fed minutes and another rate hike.
2. Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon
What is happening
Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday after the close. Amazon reports Thursday after the close. Consensus estimates compiled by Nasdaq put Alphabet at $2.94 per share (versus $2.87 a year ago), Microsoft at $4.71 (versus $4.13) and Amazon at $2.01 (versus $1.95).
Why it matters
Investors have grown nervous about whether heavy AI spending will pay off. Last week’s selloff was tied to those worries: Meta kept its spending guidance unchanged, while Tesla cut its full-year capital spending by 20%, TheStreet reported. Kristina Hooper of Man Group said there is “certainly the potential that we see less invested in an AI data center build-out next year.”
Read our recap of Thursday’s Nasdaq drop for the full context.
What to watch
Look past the headline profit figure to guidance on capital spending, cloud growth and any commentary on the cost of financing data centers. Cloud and AI demand commentary tends to move the whole chip group, which gained 0.6% on Friday after a sharp drop a day earlier.
3. Earnings Growth: A High Bar
S&P 500 companies are on track for more than 32% third-quarter earnings growth, according to LSEG IBES data cited by AP. That is a strong number, and it means expectations are elevated. A beat may already be priced in, which is why stocks can fall even on good results.
Other reports to watch include Visa and Coca-Cola on Tuesday, Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Merck on Thursday, and ExxonMobil and Chevron on Friday, when high oil prices could show up in profits. Consensus for ExxonMobil is $3.96 per share versus $1.88 a year ago, and for Chevron $4.78 versus $1.85.
4. Oil, Consumers and the Midterms
Brent crude hit its highest level since late April last week after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, and the energy sector rose 2.4% to a record high on Friday. University of Michigan consumer sentiment was near a record low in October, pressured by prices tied to the Middle East conflict. September PCE inflation data arrive Thursday and will be the Fed’s preferred inflation read before the next move.
Then comes Nov. 3, when midterm elections will determine control of Congress. Political uncertainty can add to volatility, though history shows no guaranteed pattern.
Where Stocks Stand Going In
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,623.68, down 0.5% for the week. The Dow closed at 52,215.16, up 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 25,955.34, down 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 at 2,775.90, up 2%. Our Friday stock market recap has the full breakdown.
Five Takeaways for Everyday Investors
- Expect noise midweek. The Fed, Microsoft, Alphabet and PCE data all land within about 30 hours of each other.
- Know your exposure. If a few AI-linked stocks dominate your fund, earnings reactions will move your account more than the S&P 500 headline.
- Do not chase after-hours moves. Early reactions to earnings often reverse by the next open.
- Watch borrowing costs. A hawkish tone from the Fed can push mortgage and loan rates higher.
- Stick to a plan. A written rebalancing schedule beats reacting to one hot or cold week.
For official policy statements, visit the Federal Reserve after 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Sources include the Associated Press, Reuters, TheStreet, Nasdaq earnings data and market commentary published Oct. 23. Consensus estimates are approximate and can change.
Last updated Oct. 24, 2026. For information only; not financial advice.
